Seven Ethiopian Rebel Groups Form New Alliance to Oppose Government

Several armed opposition groups that have engaged in conflicts with Ethiopian authorities across various regions have announced the formation of a unified coalition named the Alliance for Survival. According to reports from the BBC and news agencies, the coalition's stated objective is to remove the federal government in Addis Ababa.

The newly formed alliance brings together prominent armed factions, including the Fano militia operating in the Amhara region, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). In addition to these three major groups, the coalition incorporates four smaller groupings, extending its reach across half of Ethiopia's twelve regional states, including operations based in the Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions.

In their founding announcement, the seven groups accused the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of presiding over widespread conflict, mass destruction, poverty, and severe human rights crises. The coalition claims that current national policies have placed Ethiopia at a significant risk of state disintegration.

Responding to the announcement, government spokesperson Billene Seyoum stated that the groups had already engaged in a degree of collaboration prior to the formal coalition announcement, according to Reuters. The BBC has also sought further formal comment from the federal administration regarding the development.

Ethiopia has endured years of persistent armed conflict, particularly within Oromia and Amhara, which stand as the nation's most populous states. Concurrently, heightened tensions persist in the northern Tigray region. A devastating two-year civil war in Tigray previously resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and displaced millions of residents before an African Union-mediated peace agreement concluded the hostilities in late 2022. Despite that pact, concerns regarding a potential return to full-scale conflict have lingered, with both federal and regional sides exchanging accusations of agreement violations.

The administrative structure of Ethiopia relies heavily on ethnic federalism, dividing regional states largely according to dominant ethnic groups. While this framework grants a degree of local autonomy, it has also fueled social and political complexities within a nation comprising more than 80 distinct ethnic groups.

Historical divisions exist among several members of the newly established alliance. For instance, the Amhara Fano militia previously fought alongside federal government forces against the TPLF during the Tigray conflict. However, Fano subsequently turned against federal authorities in an armed insurgency after refusing government disarmament directives less than a year following the conclusion of the Tigray war.

Despite past hostilities between certain coalition members, representatives maintain that they are now committed to cooperating against a shared adversary. Nevertheless, external analysts have expressed skepticism regarding the long-term durability of the partnership. Edward Bach, an analyst with the advisory firm Verisk Maplecroft, told AFP that the disparate groups are unlikely to share military hardware, noting that shifting regional dynamics mean current allies could easily become adversaries again.

Abdikadir Addaani Hirmooge, spokesperson for the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF)—which participates in the coalition—spoke to the BBC about the coalition's mission to mend communities fractured by years of division. He stated that the collective objective centers on empowering communities to secure democracy, exercise self-determination, and achieve genuine self-governance. Furthermore, Hirmooge asserted that the government failed to uphold a 2018 peace accord intended to resolve conflicts in the Somali region, arguing that systemic issues of insecurity, ethnic strife, and mutual oppression continue to impact every major ethnic group in the country.

The central government has maintained active hostilities against the Oromo Liberation Army since 2018. The formation of the Alliance for Survival follows earlier reports regarding an alleged cooperative understanding between the TPLF and neighboring Eritrea. Addressing those earlier reports, Prime Minister Abiy expressed confidence in national security measures, telling lawmakers in July that the administration maintained complete faith in Ethiopia's defensive capabilities and sovereignty.

The political landscape has also been shaped by recent electoral processes. Ethiopia conducted a general election in June, during which Prime Minister Abiy's Prosperity Party secured a dominant parliamentary majority. However, the electoral event faced heavy criticism for being overshadowed by ongoing internal conflicts, accusations of political repression, and minimal participation from opposition parties. Notably, both the Fano and OLA rebel factions explicitly rejected the election and its outcomes, while the Tigray region and its estimated six million residents were entirely excluded from the vote.