Democrats Hold 8-Point Lead Among Likely Voters One Week Before Midterms

According to PBS NewsHour, one week before the midterm elections, Democrats hold an 8-point lead among likely voters in the battle for control of Congress, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they would support the Democratic candidate in their district, while 44% would back the Republican.

The poll indicates that Democratic voters possess a stronger enthusiasm for the upcoming election, with 71% of Democrats describing themselves as "very enthusiastic" compared to 61% of Republicans. Independents, a critical voting bloc, are breaking for Democratic candidates by a 13-point margin.

President Donald Trump remains a central, if polarizing, figure in the campaign. Likely voters stated by a 2-to-1 margin that their midterm vote is cast in opposition to the president rather than in his support. Among those surveyed, 40% of likely voters approve of the job he is doing, while 59% disapprove. This disapproval rating includes 53% who report they "strongly disapprove" of his performance.

"The underlying factor is that Democrats are getting more Republicans than Republicans are getting Democrats," noted Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. Miringoff added that because independents are favoring Democrats by double digits, the party "should have a good night."

The issue landscape remains split between economic concerns and political values. Cost of living (34%) and the preservation of democracy (33%) are the top priorities for likely voters. However, Democratic and Republican voters diverge on these issues: Democrats prioritize preserving democracy, while Republicans rank the cost of living as their primary concern.

Early voting has already seen over 30 million ballots cast nationwide. Among the one-in-five likely voters in the poll who have already submitted their ballots, Democrats lead 68% to 31%. While Democrats appear to be building an early cushion, Republican strategy relies heavily on high in-person turnout on Election Day, November 3.