England Requires Months of Above-Average Rainfall to Fully Recover from Ongoing Drought, Environment Agency Warns

According to new research reported by BBC Weather, England will need above-average rainfall consistently over the next seven months for all regions to fully recover from ongoing drought conditions by the spring of 2027.

The Environment Agency (EA) noted that despite some wet weather during the early part of September, nearly 75% of England remains gripped by drought. This follows a succession of heatwaves alongside an exceptionally dry spring and summer.

Data from the EA indicates that approximately 120% of typical rainfall must fall between now and April to lift drought designations across all affected areas. Even under the most favorable likely rainfall scenario—which factors in Met Office forecasts predicting a wetter-than-normal autumn—regions such as Devon, Cornwall, and East Anglia could still experience drought conditions by the start of spring 2027.

Additional meteorological predictions point to roughly a one-in-four chance that about half of England will remain in drought next spring. However, the EA assesses the current probability of severe drought in the coming months at only 1%.

The Environment Agency defines severe drought as a crisis causing extensive, lasting impacts on the economy, farming, environment, and local communities, accompanied by a serious threat to public water supplies. England has not encountered a severe drought since 1976.

While recent precipitation has brought some localized relief, groundwater levels remain critically low. Reservoir storage across England was recorded at just under 57% last week, marking a level roughly a fifth below normal expectations for this time of year.

EA Chief Executive Philip Duffy emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating that the drought remains very serious and that the coming months will present substantial challenges. Duffy added that a few weeks of rain cannot reverse the deficit left by the dry spring and summer, urging the public to continue conserving water to accelerate recovery.

Beyond England, dry conditions persist elsewhere in the United Kingdom. In Scotland, lack of rain has impacted parts of the east coast, leaving four areas under significant water scarcity, a designation applied when river flows stay below low-flow thresholds for 30 consecutive days. Meanwhile, the entirety of Wales remains classified under drought status.

Regarding the immediate weather outlook, short-range forecasts show rain arriving in parts of the UK, but not in the prolonged quantities necessary to alleviate the extensive dry conditions. Thursday is projected to begin with rain across south-eastern areas of England, while sunny spells and showers develop elsewhere, particularly across Northern Ireland, Scotland, and northern England. Blustery conditions are also expected due to low pressure situated north of Scotland.

Patchy rain is anticipated to spread from the west on Friday, followed by weekend showers in the north-west and south. Conditions are expected to ease by Sunday, leaving largely dry and settled weather into the following week, with the Met Office forecasting a return to drier conditions during the second half of September, especially in southern England.

Looking further ahead, Met Office seasonal outlooks indicate an increased likelihood of a wetter-than-average autumn. Researchers note that the current El Niño event, which is near record levels, is influencing this outlook alongside other factors. Historically, El Niño events correlate with warmer, wetter, and stormier late autumns and early winters in the UK.

While increased wet weather could aid drought recovery, the Environment Agency cautions that heavy rainfall also carries flooding risks. Furthermore, floodwaters are difficult to capture for public water supplies because they arrive rapidly and often contain high levels of sediment and nitrates washed from the land.